Death Tolls for the Major Wars and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century

Alphabetical Index

Site Index

 

20th Century death tolls larger than one million but fewer than 5 million people.

 

Mexican Revolution (1910-20): 1,000,000 [make link]
  • The population explosion of the 20th Century is so pervasive that populations have continued to climb during most of the bad times listed on this page; however, the intensity of the Mexican Revolution is such that the counted population of Mexico actually declined from 15,160,369 in 1910 to 14,334,780 in 1921. So how many people died in the war?
  • Most scholars are rather vague:
    • "conservatively estimated at half a million" (Peter Calvert, Mexico, 1973)
    • "perhaps a million" (C. Cumberland, Mexican Revolution: the constitutionalist years, 1972)
    • "estimated at 1 million" (Crow, The Epic of Latin America)
    • Encyclopedia Americana (2003), "Mexico": 1M lives
    • "at least a million" (Wallechensky)
    • "perhaps 2 million" (R.J. Rummel, although he later tightens his estimate to 2,142,000)
    • "as many as two million" (T.R. Fehrenbach, Fire and Blood, 1973)
  • War Deaths:
    • Wallechensky: 200,000
    • Small & Singer: 250,000
    • Rummel: 200,000 battle deaths + 125,000 incidental civilian deaths
    • Enrique Krauze, Mexico : Biography of Power (1997): 250,000 combat deaths; 750,000 of disease/hunger
    • Eckhardt: 125,000 civ. + 125,000 mil. = 250,000
  • A detailed online analysis can be found at [http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/missmill/mxrev.htm] "Missing millions: the human cost of the Mexican Revolution" by Robert McCaa. He estimates 1.4M excess deaths due to war. In contrast, he mentions these previous estimates:
    • Ordorica and Lezama: 1.4M
    • Collver: 0.5M - 2.1M
    • Loyo: 0.9M
    • Greer: 0.6M
    • Gamio: 0.55M
    • Gonzalez Navarro: 0.3M
    • Mier y Teran: 0.2M
  • AVERAGE: Of the 17 estimates here, the MEDIAN is 1,000,000, and the MEAN is 927,000.
  • American involvement: This is the only war (well okay, there were a few balloons in WW2) of the 20th Century to directly impact the United States mainland.
    • According to a report from the US Congress dated 17 Feb. 1915, the Mexican Revolution killed 213 US citizens in Mexico, as well as 36 US citizens inside the US -- often from stray bullets in border towns. Also, 92 Mexicans were killed inside the US because of the Revolution (That's the official total. Unofficially, it may be as high as 400 (Ronald Atkin, Revolution! Mexico 1910-20, 1969))
    • Keep in mind that this report predates Pancho Villa's raid on Columbus, NM, where 18 Americans and possibly 50-100 Mexicans were killed. Additionally, 19 US Marines died seizing Veracruz, and 30 US soldiers died on Pershing's expedition. (Wallechinsky)
    • Max Boot, The Savage Wars of Peace
      • Columbus NM raid: 8 US civ. + 10 US soldiers k. 100 Villistas k. + "some" hanged after trial.
      • Punitive Expedition: 135 Villistas k.
    • Texasranger.org [http://www.texasranger.org/history/SilverStars1.htm]
      • "Mexican raids into Texas in 1915-16 caused an estimated 21 American deaths; an estimated 300 Mexicans or Tejanos may have been killed in South Texas by the actions of Rangers, vigilantes and citizens. Some sources place the death toll as high as 300 and 3,000."
1st Chinese Civil War, Nationalist Era (1928-37): 5,000,000
  • Rummel:
    • Battle Deaths: 406,000
    • Democides:
      • By Guomindang (KMT): 1,524,000
      • By Communists: 850,000
      • By Warlords: 350,000
    • SUBTOTAL (Military + Civilian): 3,130,000
    • Famine/Flood: 6,500,000
  • Rummel estimates that Chiang Kai-Shek committed a total of 10,214,000 democides from 1921 to 1948. This number would include the democides counted here, as well as those during the Second World War and Second Chinese Civil War.
  • S&S:
    • Warlords vs Govt (1929-30): 75,000
    • Communists vs Govt (1930-35): 200,000
    • TOTAL: 275,000
  • Eckhardt (mil.+civ.):
    • Warlords vs Govt (1929-30): 75,000
    • Communists vs Govt (1930-35): 500,000
    • TOTAL: 575,000
  • Gilbert, citing Ho Ping-ti: 1,000,000 deaths in Szechwan from war, 1932-34
  • Edgar Snow, Red Star over China, 1938, p.188, citing KMT press releases:
    • KMT admits 1,000,000 killed or starved in 5th Campaign, recovering Kiansi Soviet.
      • Population of Soviets decreased by 600,000.
    • 3-Year famine in NW killed 3 (official ) to 6 million.
    • Shanghai Massacre: 5,000 k. by KMT.
    • Acc2 to Li Chiang-lin, Apr.-Jun 1927, Ho Chien executed 20,000 in Liu-yang District, 15,000 in Liling District
  • Wallechinsky:
    • Battle Deaths: 1,275,000
    • Civilian Deaths: 1,000,000 in 1933-34 alone.
Post-War Expulsion of Germans from East Europe (1945-47): 2,100,000 [make link]
  • Died being expelled from Poland:
    • Rummel: 1,585,000
    • Keegan, John, The Second World War (1989): 1,250,000
    • Kurt Glaser and Stephan Possony, Victims of Politics (1979): 1,225,000
  • Died, from Czechoslovakia:
    • Rummel: 197,000
    • Martin Sorge, The Other Price of Hitler's War (1986): 241,000 Sudeten Germans
    • Keegan: 250,000
    • Glaser & Possony: 267,000
  • TOTAL:
    • Kinder, Anchor Atlas of World History: 3,000,000
    • Britannica: 2,384,000 (This covers the years 1944-46, and it includes Germans who died fleeing while the war was still raging.)
    • Glaser & Possony: 2,111,000 (This includes 619,000 from "elsewhere" not listed above)
    • Keegan: 2,100,000 (This includes 600,000 from "elsewhere" not listed above; it does not include some 1,000,000 Germans who (by Keegan's estimate) died fleeing while the war was still raging.)
    • Rummel: 1,782,000
2nd Chinese Civil War (1945-49): 2,500,000 [make link]
  • Bercovitch & Jackson: 100,000
  • Ho Ping-to, Studies in the population of China, 1368-1953 (1967) pp. 253:
    • Communists: 263,800 killed.
    • Nationalists lost 1,711,110 both killed and wounded, with maybe a fifth of those [some 370,000] killed.
  • Dan Smith: 1,000,000
  • Eckhardt: 1,000,000 from all causes
  • Small & Singer: 1,000,000 battle deaths
  • Wallechinsky: 1,200,000 battle deaths
  • Walker, Robert L., The Human Cost of Communism in China (1971): 1,250,000
  • Gilbert, citing Ho Ping-ti: 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 total deaths [Ho actually said 2-3m casualties, i.e. both k. and w.]
  • Our Times: 3,000,000
  • Rummel:
    • War Dead: 1,201,000
    • Democide by Guomindang: 2,645,000
    • Democide by Communists: 2,323,000
    • Famine: 25,000
    • TOTAL: 6,194,000
Korean War (1950-53): 3,000,000 [make link]
  • All the sources I check seem pretty sure of their numbers but they all give different numbers. Okay, some of the discrepancies come from disagreement over what to include -- do we count only the 33,741 Americans killed in battle, or do we add the 2,827 non-combat deaths as well? But some of the other disagreements are harder to reconcile:
    • South Korea:
      • SoKo Military
        • 47,000 KIA (Encyclopedia Americana)
        • 46,812 KIA + 66,436 MIA (Wallechinsky; also Clodfelter, citing Defense Dept.) [=113,248]
        • 59,000 (Summers)
        • 70,000 (Clodfelter's own est.)
        • 100,000 (Leckie)
        • 113,248 (COWP)
        • 212,500 KIA (Pentagon: ¼ "KWM")
        • 225,784 (Nahm93)
        • 281,000 (Rummel)
        • 281,257 to 400,000 (Lewy - the latter citing the ROK Defense Ministry)
        • 415,000 (S&S; Hastings)
        • [MEDIAN: 113,248]
      • SoKo Civilian
        • 315,000 (Rummel)
        • 244,000 killed and 303,000 missing. (Nahm88)
        • 373,500 killed and 387,740 missing (Nahm93)
        • [MEDIAN: 547,000]
      • SoKo Military + Civilian
        • 415,004 killed (Leckie; Wallechinsky; Clodfelter, citing Defense Dept. incl. k, exec., dis.)
        • 591,285 (Compton's)
        • 596,000 (Rummel)
        • 600,000 (Dictionary of 20C World History)
        • 987,024 (Nahm93)
        • 1,300,000 (Britannica)
        • [MEDIAN: 595,000]
    • North Korea:
      • NoKo Military
        • 130,000 KIA (Pentagon: ¼ "KWM")
        • 294,151 (Nahm93)
        • 214,899 KIA + 101,680 MIA (Wallechinsky; Clodfelter, citing ["highly suspect"] Defense Dept. est.) [=316,579]
        • 316,579 (COWP)
        • 350,000 (Rummel)
        • 520,000 (Small & Singer, FAS)
        • [MEDIAN: 316,579]
      • NoKo Civilian
        • 406,000 killed + 680,000 missing (Nahm93)
        • Up to 1,000,000 (Wallechinsky; Clodfelter)
        • 1,185,000 (Rummel)
        • [MEDIAN: 1,000,000]
      • NoKo Military + Civilian
        • 500,000 (Britannica)
        • 700,000 (Dictionary of 20C World History)
        • 926,000 (Compton's)
        • 1,316,579 (Wallechinsky; Clodfelter)
        • 1,380,151 (Nahm93)
        • 1,535,000 (Rummel)
        • [MEDIAN: 1,316,579]
    • China
      • 110,000 KIA + 35,000 other (FAS citing "Chinese sources")
      • 225,000 KIA (Pentagon: ¼ "KWM")
      • 401,401 KIA + 21,211 MIA (Wallechinsky; Clodfelter, citing ["highly suspect"] Defense Dept. est.) [= 422,612]
      • 422,612 (COWP)
      • 500,000 (Rummel)
      • 900,000 (Compton's, S&S, FAS)
      • 1,000,000 (Britannica)
      • [MEDIAN: ca. 460,000]
    • Combined Chinese and North Korean military dead
      • 400,000 (from disease, Wallechinsky; Clodfelter [in addition to KIA est. above])
      • 500,000 (from battle, Summers)
      • 0.5M (generally, Lewy)
      • 1.5M (from all causes, Hastings)
    • US
      • 33,000 (Dictionary of 20C World History)
      • 33,625 (Nahm93)
      • 33,741 battle + 2,827 other = 36,568 (DIOR [official])
      • 36,940, incl. 3275 non-combat (FAS)
      • 54,000 (Britannica, S&S)
      • 54,246 (COWP)
      • 33,629 KIA + 20,617 other = 54,246 (Summers, Wallechinsky, Lewy, Encyclopedia Americana)
      • 33,629 (Compton's; Hastings)
    • Other UN: 2,186 (Nahm93); 2,630 (S&S); 3,063 (Hastings, Summers); 3,194 (Wallechinsky)
      • By nation
        • UK
          • 11 Nov. 2000 Times [London]: 1,078 British
          • Clodfelter, COWP, Wallechinsky: 710
          • Leckie, S&S: 670
        • Turkey
          • S&S: 720
          • COWP, Clodfelter, Leckie, Wallechinsky: 717
        • Canada
          • Clodfelter: 291
          • COWP, Leckie: 309
          • S&S: 310
        • France
          • COWP, Clodfelter, Leckie: 288
          • S&S: 290
        • Australia
          • Leckie: 265.
          • COWP, S&S: 281
          • Clodfelter: 291
          • AWM: 339 Australia
        • Greece
          • S&S: 170
          • COWP, Clodfelter, Leckie: 169
        • Columbia
          • Clodfelter, S&S, Leckie: 140
        • Ethiopia
          • Clodfelter, S&S: 120
        • Neth.
          • S&S: 110
          • COWP, Clodfelter, Leckie: 111
        • Thailand
          • S&S: 110
          • Clodfelter, Leckie: 114
        • Belgium
          • S&S: 100
          • COWP, Clodfelter: 97
        • Phillipines
          • S&S: 90
          • Clodfelter, Leckie: 92
    • TOTAL
      • 1,333,060 killed + 1,067,740 missing (Nahm93, not including Chinese)
      • 1,892,000 (S&S, not including civilians)
      • 2,454,000 (Compton's)
      • 2,488,744 (Wallechinsky)
      • 2,854,000 (Britannica)
      • 2,889,000 (Eckhardt)
      • 3,000,000 (D. Smith)
      • 3,000,000 (B&J)
      • 3,062,000 (Rummel)
      • 3,500,000 (Lewy, incl. 2-3M civilians)
    • [MEDIAN of TOTALS: ca. 2,950,000] or [TOTAL of MEDIANS: ca. 2,470,000]
Atrocities:
  • 1950 massacre in Seoul by North Koreans: 128,936 (Nahm93); 100,000 (Dictionary of 20C World History) [AP makes it sound like these were all over So.Ko., not just Seoul.]
  • AP [http://www.pulitzer.org/year/2000/investigative-reporting/works/]
    • No Gun Ri, 1950: US massacre of civilian refugees (ca. 100 killed by air attack, 200-400 killed by infantry) first reported by AP, 29 Sep. 1999. US News & World Report (22 May 2000) cast serious doubt on the reliability of many of the eye-witness accounts. The AP response (16 May 2000) restored credibility.
    • Killed by N.Koreans (13 Oct. 1999 AP):
      • Taejon: 5,000 to 7,500 civilians and 42 US POWs
      • "The U.S. Army, in November 1951, cited U.N. figures saying 25,575 South Korean civilians were killed during the communist occupation of South Korea. But the South Korean government later put that toll at 129,000."
  • Gilbert, History of the Twentieth Century: 26,000 South Korean civilians executed by North Koreans within their zone of conquest, 1950.
  • Lewy: 2,701 out of 7,140 US POWs died after capture. In all, 5,639 USAns died as a result of war crimes.
  • VFW, citing Potter Comm. Report: 7,000 civilians and 60 US POWs k. in Taejon by N.Kor. (23-27 Sept. 1950) [http://www.vfw.org/magazine/feb03/koreanwaratrocities.htm]
  • Alleged & unproven USA/ROK atrocities:
    • From the 14 July 2003 Guardian: "[The North Koreans] say that the US started the fighting and committed atrocities on civilians at Sinchon, a claim for which there is little evidence, but one which is the subject of numerous gory paintings."
    • 13 Oct. 1999 AP: "The North Koreans... alleged that earlier the southern government had murdered thousands of communist sympathizers around Taejon... in July 1950."
    • Some guys on Internet: Comm. sympathizers killed by S.Koreans (1950) [http://www.kimsoft.com/1997/nogun2.htm]
      • Pusan: 50,000
      • Throughout the country: 100,000+
      • Seoul: 29,000
    • Some other guy on Internet: 35,000 k.at Sinchun [http://www.kimsoft.com/2002/sinchun.htm]
    • North Korean news releases:
      • [http://210.145.168.243/pk/118th_issue/99110404.htm]
        • "At least 109,000 people of south Korea were killed by the U.S. imperialists in 1949 alone."
        • "In Sinchon county, South Hwanghae Province, alone they killed more than 35,380 people or one fourth of its entire population in a little over 50 days."
        • "Lording it over south Korea after the war, they ruthlessly killed people as their hunting and shooting targets and playthings and for pleasure, regardless of men and women, young and old."
  • NOTE: The Korean War was preceded by an unsuccessful Communist uprising. It was the failure to seize control from within that sparked the North Korean invasion.
Korean War Sources:
  • Blair, Clay, The Forgotten War (1987)
  • Clodfelter, Michael, Warfare and Armed Conflict: A Statistical Reference to Casualty and Other Figures, 1618-1991
  • COWP: Correlates of War Project [http://www.correlatesofwar.org/cow2%20data/WarData/InterState/Inter-State%20War%20Participants%20(V%203-0).htm]
  • DIOR: US Dept. of Defense, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports [http://web1.whs.osd.mil/mmid/CASUALTY/KOREA.xls] (NOTE: These numbers do not include 17,678 other deaths which occured outside the theater of ops.)
  • Encyclopedia Americana (1995)
  • Hastings, Max, The Korean War (1987)
  • Leckie, Robert, Conflict: the history of the Korean War, 1950-53 (1962)
  • Lewy, Guenter, America in Vietnam (1978)
  • Nahm, Andrew, Korea: tradition and transformation (1988): "Nahm88"
  • Nahm, Andrew, Historical Dictionary of the Republic of Korea (1993): "Nahm93"
  • "Pentagon"
    • Blair, Leckie and the Encyclopedia Americana cite Pentagon estimates for the total killed, wounded and missing:
      • All UN: 996,937 (Pentagon, kwm)
        • South Korea: 850,000 (Pentagon, kwm)
      • All Communist: 1,420,000 (Pentagon, kwm.)
        • China: 900,000 (Pentagon, kwm)
        • North Korea: 520,000 (Pentagon, kwm)
    • Now, if we use the standard ratio of 1 killed for every 3 wounded, we get the numbers that I have attributed above to "Pentagon"
    • While we're at it, notice that S&S's estimates for killed are often the same as the Pentagon's estimates for killed, wounded and missing.
  • Summers, H., Korean War Almanac (1990)
North Korea (1948 et seq.): 3,000,000 [make link]
  • Communist regime:
    • Rummel estimates that the Communist regime of North Korea committed 1,663,000 democides between 1948 and 1987
      • North Korean victims: 1,293,000
      • South Korean victims: 363,000
    • Courtois, Stephane, Le Livre Noir du Communism: 2,000,000 (p.4)
      • In Party purges: 100,000 (p.564)
      • In concentration camps: 1.5M
    • Omestad, “Gulag Nation” 23 June 2003 US News & WR: 400,000 died in gulags in past 3 decades.
    • The Center for the Advancement of North Korean Human Rights estimates that some 400,000 prisoners have died in labor camps since 1972. [http://www.nkhumanrights.or.kr/oldnkhuman/eng/nk/nknews12_01.html]
    • Famine, 1995-98
      • 13 March 1999, Agence France Presse, "Top defector says famine has killed over three million Koreans": 3,500,000 deaths as of 12/98
      • 19 Oct. 2000 Guardian: 3M
      • Branigan, “North Korea life expectancy falls, census reveals”, 22 February 2010, Guardian: 600,000 to 1 million
      • MSF: 3.5M [http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/publications/other/deadly_2001.shtml]
      • 19 Oct. 2003 NY Times: 2M died in preventable famine.
      • Associated Press, "North Korea admits its famine has killed hundreds of thousands," May 10, 1999:
        • The North Korean govt. estimates 220,000 famine-related deaths, 1995-98
        • US Congressional delegation: 2M
        • South Korean intelligence estimates that the population of North Korea fell from 25M to 22M.
Rwanda and Burundi (1959-95): 1 350,000 [make link]
Back and forth massacres between Hutu and Tutsi
Rwanda (late 1950s, early 1960s, primarily Tutsi killed by Hutu)
  • Cambridge Encyclopedia of Africa: 10,000 (1959-61)
  • Edgerton
    • 1959: 20,000 Tutsi k. by Hutu. "Tutsi soon struck back, killing at least as many Hutu"
    • 1963: 10,000 Tutsi k.
  • Harff & Gurr: 5,000 - 14,000 (1963-64)
  • Eckhardt: 102,000 civ. + 3,000 mil. = 105,000 (1956-65)
  • D.Smith: 20,000 (1959-61) + 100,000 (1962-66) = 120,000
  • WHPSI: 21,000 (1964), 5,000 (1966), none listed for 1962, '63, '65, but it might be that the 1964 number is meant to cover the entire span rather than just '64.
  • S&S: 2,500 (1963-64)
Burundi (1969, primarily Hutu killed by Tutsi)
  • D.Smith: > 50,000
Burundi (1972-73, primarily Hutu killed by Tutsi) 120,000 [make link]
  • Dunnigan (1991): 210,000
  • 1984 World Almanac: 150,000 Hutu, 10,000 Tutsi
  • Edgerton: 100,000-200,000
  • BBC: 150,000 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/country_profiles/1068991.stm]
  • Diamond, Jared, The Third Chimpanzee: 80-200,000
  • Rene Lemarchand: 100,000 - 150,000 (in Century of Genocide, Samuel Totten, ed., (1997))
  • Britannica: 100,000 - 150,000
  • MEDIAN: ca. 125,000
  • Dict.Wars: 100,000 Hutu and 10,000 Tutsi
  • D.Smith: 100,000
  • Eckhardt: 80,000 civ. + 20,000 mil. = 100,000
  • Cambridge Encyclopedia of Africa: 100,000
  • WHPSI: 81,754 (1971-72)
  • S&S: 50,000 battle deaths
Burundi (1988) 20,000
  • Dunnigan (1991): 33,000
  • Britannica: 20,000
  • D.Smith: > 20,000
  • War Annual 8 (1997): 20,000
  • Encarta: 5,000
  • MEDIAN: 20,000
Burundi (1993-2004) 260,000
  • [Listed Chronologically]
  • Dict.Wars: 50,000 in 1993
  • B&J: 100,000 (1992-93)
  • CDI: 170,000 (1988-97)
  • 29 April 1999 AP: 150,000-250,000 (1993-98)
  • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 200,000 (1993-99)
  • Ploughshares 2000: 200,000 (1988-2000)
  • BBC
    • Country Profiles: 300,000 since 1993 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1068873.stm]
    • 22 April, 2005: 250,000 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4472135.stm]
  • 15 July 2003 MSN/Reuters: >300,000, mostly civilians, since 1993
  • UN Population Fund: 260,000 dead [“Burundi Civil War Claims 260,000 Lives—UNFPA,” Panafrican News Agency (PANA) Daily Newswire, April 25, 2004.]
Rwanda (1994, primarily Tutsi killed by Hutu) 937,000
  • D.Smith: 500,000
  • War Annual 8 (1997): 500,000
  • Rene Lemarchand: 500,000 (in Century of Genocide, Samuel Totten, ed., (1997))
  • Agence France Presse (20 Feb. 1998): 500,000 to 800,000
  • Ploughshares 2000: 500,000-1,000,000 (1994) followed by tens of thous.
  • PBS Frontline: the Triumph of Evil: 800,000 ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/evil/etc/slaughter.html)
  • MEDIAN: ca. 800,000
  • Victoria Brittain, Death of Dignity (1998): 850,000
  • Dict.Wars: 850,000 in 1994
  • Arthur Asiimwe, “Rwanda census puts genocide death toll at 937,000”, Reuters News, April 4, 2004: 937,000 according to new census by Rwandan govt.
  • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 800,000 in 1994; 1M total as of 1999
  • B&J: 1,000,000 (1990-95)
  • Nyarubuye Massacre
    • 4 Apr 2004 BBC: 5,000-10,000 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/panorama/3582267.stm]
TOTAL of HUTU vs. TUTSI
  • TOTAL OF MEDIANS: 1.2 M
  • TOTAL RANGE: 0.7-1.7 M
Second Indochina War (1960-75): 4 200,000 [make link]
Vietnam War (1965-73): 1 700,000
  • Most historians of the Second Indochina War concern themselves primarily with the American Phase of the conflict, 1965-73; however, many do not specify whether their estimated death tolls cover only this phase of the war or the whole thing. An asterisk(*) indicates that the number seems to cover the entire conflict rather than just the American Phase, but check the "Sources" section to see exactly which years are covered by each authority:
  • South Vietnam military
    • 181,483 (Gilbert)
    • 185,000 to 225,000 (Britannica)
    • 220,357 (Lewy, Ency. Americana)
    • 223,748 (Summers; also 3 April 1995 AP)
    • 224,000 (Kutler, Olson)
    • 250,000 (Clodfelter, Grenville*)
    • 254,257 (Wallechinsky*, COWP [1965-75])
    • 650,000 (Small & Singer)
    • [MEDIAN: 224,000]
  • North Vietnamese military and Viet Cong
    • 444,000 (Ency. Americana)
    • 500,000 (S&S)
    • 660,000 (Olson)
    • 666,000 (Lewy, with the possibility that as many as 222,000 (1/3) of these were actually SVN civilians mistaken for VC)
    • 666,000 (Summers)
    • 700,000 (COWP [DRV 1965-75])
    • 700,000-1,000,000 (Wallechinsky*)
    • 900,000 (Britannica; Grenville*)
    • 922,290 (Gilbert [NVN soldiers + civilians + VC])
    • 1,000,000 (Clodfelter)
    • 1,100,000 (Tucker*, Official VN* [1954-75])
    • [MEDIAN: starred*: 1,000,000. unstarred: 666,000]
  • South Vietnamese civilians
    • 50,000 (Gilbert)
    • 250,000 (Olson)
    • 287,000 (Clodfelter = 247,600 war deaths + 38,954 assassinated by NLF)
    • 300,000 (Kutler; Summers)
    • 340,000 (Lewy's estimate, with the possibility that an additional 222,000 counted as VC (above) belong in this category)
    • 430,000 (The Sen. E. Kennedy Commission, according to Lewy, Olson)
    • 522,000 (Wallechinsky*)
    • 1,000,000 (Britannica [in both North and South]; Eckhardt; Grenville*)
    • 2,000,000 (Tucker*, Official VN* [N&S, 1954-75],)
    • [MEDIAN: starred*: ca. 1,500,000. unstarred: 300,000]
  • North Vietnamese civilians: 65,000 (Kutler, Lewy, Olson, Summers, Wallechinsky) by American bombing.
  • USA
    • 55,337 (Gilbert)
    • 47,378 KIA + 10,799 other = 58,177 (Official US DoD, 1964-73)
    • 58,159 (Kutler)
    • 58,153 (Wallechinsky*, COWP)
    • 58,000 (Britannica)
    • 47,244 KIA + 10,446 other = 57,690 (Olson; Summers, 1961-80)
    • 57,605 (Ency. Americana)
    • 56,146 (Lewy: 46,498 KIA + 10,388 other + 719 MIA)
    • 56,000 (S&S)
  • South Korea: 4,407 (Lewy, Olson, Summers); 4,687 (Wallechinsky, COWP); 5,000 (S&S)
  • Philippines: 1,000 (S&S)
  • Thailand: 351 (Lewy, Olson, Summers, Wallechinsky); 1,000 (S&S)
  • Australia: 469 (Lewy, Summers, Olson [w/NZ]); 492 (S&S); 494 (Wallechinsky); 520 (AWM)
  • TOTAL
    • 1,021,442 (COWP)
    • 1,216,000 (military only, S&S)
    • 1,312,000 (Summers)
    • 1,353,000 (Lewy)
    • 1,520,453 (WHPSI: S. Vietnamese only, 1965-75)
    • 1,637,000 (Olson)
    • 1,721,000 (Kutler)
    • 1,749,000 (Wallechinsky*)
    • 1,800,000 (B&J*, 1960-75)
    • 2,058,000 (Eckhardt)
    • 2,163,000 (Britannica)
    • 2,500,000 (Grenville*)
    • 3,000,000 (1965-75, Chomsky* (1987))
    • >3,100,000 (Tucker*; Official VN*)
    • 3,812,000 (Obermeyer, “Fifty years of violent war deaths...”, British Medical Journal, 336:1482, 2008*)
      • margin of error: (2,207,000 to 5,942,000)
      • in contrast, Obermeyer cites earlier Uppsala/PRIO est.: 2,096,000
  • MEDIAN TOTALS
    • * Whole conflict: [MEDIAN of TOTALS: ca. 3,000,000] or [TOTAL of MEDIANS: ca. 2,850,000]
    • American Phase (unstarred): [MEDIAN of TOTALS: ca. 1,700,000] or [TOTAL of MEDIANS: ca. 1,300,000]
Sub-Wars
  • In addition to the American Phase of the War, there are four tangental conflicts which are sometimes discussed as part of the Vietnam War, but usually considered peripheral:
    1. Vietnamese Civil War, internal phase, 1960-65
      • Clodfelter, 1961-64
        • South Vietnam, military: 21,442
        • Communist: 71,000
        • Civilian: 160,000
        • TOTAL: 252,442
      • Chomsky (1987):
        • 1957-61: 66,000 VC (p.274, citing B. Fall), 80,000 Vietnamese (p.323)
        • 1961-4/65: 89,000 VC
        • to mid 1966: 60,000 ("enemy" (McNamara) - "probably" including civilians (Chomsky))
        • Total, 1954-65: 160-170,000 VNese (p.324)
      • S&S: 300,000 battle deaths, 1960-65
      • Eckhardt: 200,000 civ. + 100,000 mil. = 300,000 (1960-65)
      • COWP: 302,000
        • RVN: 300,000
        • USA: 2,000
      • Young: NLF lost 100,000 dead 1961-(?)64
      • WHPSI:
        • 21,686 deaths by political violence in South Vietnam, 1960-64
        • 4,021 from 1955 to 1959
    2. Cambodian Civil War (1970-75): 600,000
      • Chomsky (1987): half a million to a million.
      • Rummel, 1954-75:
        • War Dead: 429,000
        • Democide: 288,000
        • TOTAL: 717,000
      • Tucker: 10% of 7M [which comes to 700,000]
      • Clodfelter; also Wallechinsky (1970-75)
        • Cambodian govt.: 50,000
        • Total violent deaths, incl. Comm. and civ.: >250,000
        • Total war-related deaths, incl. hunger: 600,000
      • T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996), citing a Finnish commission: 600,000
      • MEDIAN: ca. 0.5-0.6M
      • Chirot: 500,000
      • B&J: 300,000
      • SIPRI 1989: 156,000
      • S&S, 1970-73
        • Cambodia: 150,000
        • USA: 500
        • SVietnam: 5,000
        • NVietnam: 500
        • TOTAL: 156,000
      • Eckhardt: 156,000
      • COWP
        • Cambodia: 50,000
        • USA: 500
        • SVietnam: 5,000
        • NVietnam: 500
        • TOTAL: 185,000
      • WHPSI: 55,750 k. by pol.viol., 1970-75
    3. Laos
      • Wallechinsky, 1959-75: 250,000
      • Martin Stuart-Fox A History of Laos: 200,000 by 1973, incl. 30,000 Hmong.
      • Rummel, 1954-75:
        • War Dead: 32,000
        • Democide: 38,000
        • TOTAL: 70,000
      • Obermeyer, “Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia”, British Medical Journal, 336:1482 (2008): 62,000 killed
        • in contrast, Obermeyer cites earlier Uppsala/PRIO est.: 18,000-20,000
      • Eckhardt: 12,000 civ. + 12,000 mil. = 24,000 (1960-73)
      • S&S, 1960-73
        • Laos: 5,000 (1960-62), 15,000 (1963-73)
        • USA: 500
        • NVietnam: 3,000
        • TOTAL: 23,500
      • WHPSI: 22,355 k. by pol.viol., 1963-72
      • T. Lomperis, From People's War to People's Rule (1996): 20,000 Meo irregulars and 15,000 Royal Lao Army
      • Harff & Gurr: 18-20,000 Meo tribemen were victims of genocide, 1963-65
    4. Vietnamese Civil War, final phase, 1973-75
      • Young, citing Pentagon estimates:
        • ARVN: 26,500 (1973) + 30,000 (1974)
        • PRG/DRV: 39,000 (1973) + 61,000 (1974)
        • Civilians: 15,000
        • [TOTAL: 171,500 killed in the "Cease-Fire War".]
  • [My guess is 3.5M for the Vietnam conflict, plus .6M for Cambodia, plus 62,000 in Laos]
Atrocities:
  • Lewy:
    • 36,725 civilians assassinated by VC/NVA, 1957-72
    • 2,800 civilians executed and 3,000 missing after Hue was captured by VC/NVA, 1968
    • 400 civilians massacred by USAns in the area of Son My village, incl. 175-200 in My Lai hamlet, 1968
    • Because of the lack of weapons recovered from many bodies, Lewy considers the possibility that up to 222,000 VC KIA may have actually been innocent bystanders. (Or maybe not. Poor evidence either way.)
  • Harff & Gurr: 475,000 civilians in NLF areas were victims of repressive politicide, 1965-72
  • Young: Hue massacre, 1968:
    • Officially: 2,800-5,700
    • Len Ackland: 300-400
  • Chomsky (1987): 21,000 VC civilian officials assassinated under US/GVN Phoenix project (-in text. Endnote gives estimates ranging 40-48,000.). Lewy considers these to be (mostly) legitimate military targets.
  • October 22, 2003 Toledo Blade: Tiger Force (US) committed ongoing atrocities in Quang Nam province, July-Nov 1967. Incomplete records show 81 murders. The unit reported 1000+ enemies killed, but it sounds like a lot of those weren't legit. From the article details, I'd guess they murdered a few hundred (300±) civilians. [http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031022/SRTIGERFORCE/110190169]
  • Hanson:
    • VN civilians k. by indiscriminate American bombing: 50,000
    • VN civilians k. by indiscriminate Communist rocketing, artillery and terrorism: 400,000
  • Rummel:
    • 51,000 democides by South Vietnam (1963-75), incl...
      • executions: 30,000
      • forced relocations: 5,000 dead
      • prison deaths: 5,000
    • 166,000 democides by NVN/VC in SVN:
      • Officials assassinated: 17,000
      • Civilians assassinated: 49,000
      • Refugees killed, 1975: 50,000
      • Misc: 50,000
    • 6,000 democides by USA
Vietnam War Sources:
  • Britannica: not specified, but the implication is that the statistics cover the entire war.
  • Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995)
  • COWP: Correlates of War Project. Covers the years 1965-75 [http://www.correlatesofwar.org/cow2%20data/WarData/InterState/Inter-State%20War%20Participants%20(V%203-0).htm]
  • Eckhardt: covers the years 1965-75 (unless otherwise noted)
  • Encyclopedia Americana (2003), "Vietnam War"
  • Grenville: does not specify which years are covered, but by context, it seems to be 1960-75
  • Hanson, Victor Davis, "Tet, January 31-April 6, 1968," Carnage and culture (2001)
  • Kutler, Stanley: Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1996)
  • Lewy, Guenter, America in Vietnam (1978): Lewy's estimates cover the years 1965-74. (u.o.n.)
  • Official VN: On the 20th Anniversary of the war's end, Hanoi announced its official tally of losses for 21 years of war: 1954-75 [3 April 1995 AP; 30 April 1995 Washington Post. Herald Sun, April 5, 1995; Plain Dealer (Cleveland, Ohio), January 1, 1996; Financial Times (London,England), April 5, 1995; Xinhua News Agency, APRIL 3, 1995; United Press International, February 25, 1997. (5 Nov. 2004) See also, Common Mistake #2]
  • Olson, James: Dictionary of the Vietnam War (1988): covers the years 1965-74 (u.o.n.)
  • Summers, Harry: Vietnam War Almanac (1985)
  • Tucker, Spencer, Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1998)
  • Wallechinsky: death tolls apparently cover the years 1957-75. (u.o.n.)
  • Young, Marilyn, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (1991)
Ethiopia (1962-92): 2,000,000 [make link]
  • This event consists of two simultaneous civil wars in the same country, along with a major famine and dictatorial repression. Different estimates seem to count some or all of them together or separately.
  • Totals:
    • Louis Rapoport, “Knives Are Out For A Bloodstained Ruler,” Sydney Morning Herald (from The New Republic) April 28, 1990:
      • Total: “More than two million people… died because of resettlement, imprisonment, withheld famine relief, military losses and straight execution.”
      • famine deaths: 1,000,000
    • Carlos Sanchez, "A Victory Tempered By Sorrow," Washington Post, May 26, 1991
      • war deaths: 400,000
      • famine deaths: 1,000,000
    • Fitzgerald, Mary Anne, “Tyrant for the taking,” London: The Times, April 20, 1991 : “More than two million people have died in political purges and civil war, or from malnourishment that was abetted by government policies.”
    • 12 Dec. 1994 Dallas Morning News: 1,500,000 people died from war, drought and forced resettlement
  • War Dead
    • B&J
      • 1st Ogaden War (1964): 700
      • 2nd Ogaden War (1972-78): 30,000
      • 3rd Ogaden War (1987-88): 300
      • Eritrean War (1965-93): 200,000
      • TOTAL: 231,000
    • Dict.Wars: 250,000 deaths in the Eritrean war, aggravated by drought and famine.
    • Eckhardt
      • Ogaden, w/ Cuban & Somali intervention (1972-80): 15,000 civ. + 21,000 mil. = 36,000
      • Eritrean revolt & famine (1974-87): 500,000 civ. + 46,000 mil. = 546,000
    • Obermeyer, “Fifty years of Violent War Deaths…”: 579,000 killed
      • (margin of error: 304,000 to 993,000)
      • in contrast, Obermeyer cites earlier Uppsala/PRIO est.: 275,000 (192,000-459,000)
    • D.Smith says that 1,500,000 had died as of 1991.
    • Henry, Neil, “Mengistu Leaves Ethiopia in Shambles,” Washington Post, May 22, 1991
      • war deaths: 500,000
      • famine deaths: 1,000,000
    • Manthorpe, Jonathan, “Mengistu's brutal regime lasted surprisingly long,” Toronto Star, May 22, 1991: 500,000 famine deaths
    • When the war ended, the Washington Post (26 May 91) was saying that the war had killed 400,000 people. (plus 1,000,000 dead by famine which you may or may not want to add into the final total.)
  • Atrocities under Mengistu (r. 1974-91):
    • 14 Dec. 1994 NY Times:
      • Killed in campaign of persecution after 1974: 150,000
      • Died in forced relocation programs: 100,000
      • Died in ensuing famines: 1,000,000
    • 27 Jan. 2000 Washington Post: as many as 1M deaths attributed to his govt.
    • Agence France Presse (8 Oct. 1996): estimates of the number of killings range from 50,000 to 200,000.
    • Harff & Gurr: 30,000 political opponents were victims of revolutionary politicide, 1974-79
Nigeria (1966-70): 1,000,000 [make link]
  • Coup, 1966
    • Harff & Gurr: 9-30,000 Ibos living in the north killed, 1966
    • Edgerton: 5,000 to 50,000 Ibos
  • Biafran War, 1967-70:
    • John de St. Jorre, The Brothers' War (1972): 600,000
    • WPA3: 600,000
    • Edgerton: 500,000 to 1,000,000
    • Kuper: 600,000 to 1,000,000
    • Encarta: at least 1,000,000 died of starvation
    • B&J: 1,000,000 total
    • S&S: 1,000,000 battle deaths
    • Our Times: at least 1,000,000
    • Robert Melson: over 1,000,000 starved (in Is the Holocaust Unique?)
    • Compton's Encyclopedia: 1,500,000 starved
    • WHPSI: 1,993,900 deaths by political violence, 1966-70.
    • Dict.Wars: nearly 2,000,000
    • Eckhardt: 1,000,000 civ. + 1,000,000 mil. = 2,000,000
    • D. Smith: 2,000,000
    • Don Jacobs, The Brutality of Nations (1987): 3,000,000
    • MEDIAN: 1.0 M+
Bangladesh (1971): 1,250,000 [make link]
  • The high estimates of how many Bengalis were massacred are almost 10 times the low estimates:
    • Obermeyer, “Fifty years of violent war deaths... ” (2008): 269,000 killed
      • margin of error: 125,000 to 505,000
      • in contrast, Obermeyer cites earlier Uppsala/PRIO est.: 58,000
    • WHPSI: 307,013 deaths by pol.viol. in Pakistan, 1971.
    • D.Smith says 500,000
    • S&S: 500,000 (Civil War, Mar.-Dec. 1971)
    • 1984 World Almanac: up to 1,000,000 civilians were killed.
    • Hartman: 1,000,000 Bengalis
    • B&J: 1,000,000 Bengalis
    • Kuper cites a study by Chaudhuri which counted 1,247,000 dead, and mentions the possibility that it may be as many as 3,000,000.
    • Porter: 1M-2M
    • MEDIAN: 1,500,000
    • Rummel: 1,500,000.
    • Eckhardt: 1,000,000 civ. + 500,000 mil. = 1,500,000 (Bangladesh)
    • Harff & Gurr: 1,250,000 to 3,000,000
    • The official estimate in Bangladesh is 3 million dead. [AP 30 Dec. 2000; Agence France Presse 3 Oct. 2000;
    • Rounaq Johan: 3,000,000 (in Century of Genocide: Eyewitness Accounts and Critical Views, Samuel Totten, ed., (1997))
    • Compton's Encyclopedia, "Genocide": 3,000,000
    • Encyclopedia Americana (2003), "Bangladesh": 3,000,000
  • Indo-Pak War, 1971
    • B&J
      • W. Pakistan: 8,000
      • India: 2-3,000
    • S&S
      • India: 8,000 [sic]
      • Pakistan: 3,000 [sic]
      • TOTAL: 11,000
    • Eckhardt (Indo-Pak War): 11,000
    • Clodfelter
      • India: 3,241
      • Pakistan: 7,982
      • [TOTAL: 11,223]
    • WPA3
      • India: 3,037
      • Pakistan: 7,982
      • TOTAL: 11,019
    • Hartman:
      • India: 10,633
      • Pakistan: 17,000
      • [TOTAL: 27,633]
Cambodia, Khmer Rouge (1975-1978): 1,650,000 [make link]
  • Pol Pot's reign of terror is probably the second most widely publicized genocide of the century, so it's pretty easy to find estimates:
    • Math Ly, member of Cambodian Politburo: 3,300,000 (21 May 1987 AP)
    • Rummel: 2,000,000 domestic + 35,000 foreign democides
    • SIPRI 1989: 2,000,000
    • Elizabeth Becker When the War Was Over (1986): as many as 2,000,000
    • D. Smith: 1 to 3 million
    • Eckhardt: 1,500,000 civ. + 500,000 mil. = 2,000,000
    • War Annual 6: 2,000,000
    • Kutler, Stanley: Encyclopedia of the Vietnam War (1996): 2M
    • Courtois, Stephane, Le Livre Noir du Communism: 1,300,000 to 2,300,000
    • Clodfelter, Michael, Vietnam in Military Statistics (1995): 1,200,000 to 2,000,000
    • Wallechinsky: between 1 and 2 million.
    • Dict.Wars: 1M ("Cambodian Civil War of 1970-75") to 2M ("Kampuchean Civil War of 1978-98")
    • P. Johnson: 1,200,000.
    • Marie Martin, Cambodia, a Shattered Society (1994) cites:
      • US State Dept.: 1.2-1.8M
      • Demographer En Meng Try: 1.0-1.2M
    • Encarta: "...may have caused more than 1 million..."
    • Chandler, David, Brother Number One (1992): "conservative estimate" of 800,000 to 1,000,000.
    • Marilyn Young, The Vietnam Wars: 1945-1990 (1991): in the text she gives the range of estimates as 0.7 to 2.0 M. In a footnote, she favorably cites Michael Vickery's estimate of 700,000 to 1,000,000.
    • Chomsky (1987): 750,000, citing Vickery.
  • These are the numbers quoted in Pol Pot's 1998 obituaries:
    • "more than 1 million" (New York Times, Newsweek, Time)
    • "1.5 million or more" (Washington Post)
    • "up to 2 million" (U.S. News and World Reports)
  • Ben Kiernan in The Pol Pot Regime (also in "The Cambodian Genocide", Century of Genocide: Eyewitness Accounts and Critical Views, Samuel Totten, editor, 1997) estimates 1,671,000 (21%) killed out of a population of 7,890,000, including...
    • Vietnamese: 10,000 (100%)
    • Chinese: 215,000 (50%)
    • Lao: 4,000 (40%)
    • Thai: 8,000 (40%)
    • Cham: 90,000 (36%)
    • Urban Khmer: 500,000 (25%)
    • Rural Khmer: 825,000 (16%)
  • Average: If we take these 25 estimates and figure that "more than" means 20% more, while "up to" means 20% less, and "between" means dead center, then both the median and mean of all these estimates is 1.6M
Afghanistan (1979-2001): 1,800,000 [make link]
  • Soviets vs. Mujahideen vs. Govt. vs. Taliban [estimates listed chronologically]
    • War Annual 6 (1994): 1,000,000
    • Britannica Annual (1994): 1,500,000
    • Wallechinsky (1995): 1,300,000
    • D.Smith (1995): 1,500,000
    • B&J (1997): 1,500,000 (1979-95)
    • Dictionary of 20C World History (1997): 1M
    • CDI: 1,550,000 (1978-97)
    • 29 April 1999 AP: 2,000,000
    • Dict.Wars: >2M
    • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 1,800,000
    • Ploughshares 2000: 1,500,000
    • [MEDIAN of latest five: 1,800,000]
  • Partials
    • Soviet Phase and immediate aftermath only
      • Isby, War in a Distant Country: Afghanistan (1989): Civilian deaths:
        • 1986 voluntary aid study: 600,000
        • 1987 USAID study: 875,000
        • 1987 Gallup study: 1,200,000
      • 2 June 2002 LA Times: 670,000 civilians during 10-year Soviet occupation
      • Toronto Star (6 May 1991): more than 1,000,000
      • SIPRI 1990: 1,000,000 total dead (the 1988 Yearbook estimated 100-150T battle dead)
      • Minneapolis Star-Tribune (14 Sept. 1991): 1,500,000
      • FAS 2000: 1-2M Afghans (1979-89)
      • USA Today (17 Apr. 1992): more than 2 million.
      • [MEDIAN: 1.5M]
    • 20 Sept 2001 Christian Science Monitor: 400,000 civilian deaths in the 1990s [http://www.csmonitor.com/2001/0920/p1s3-wosc.html]
    • Factional fighting in Kabul, 1992-96
      • 30 Dec. 2001 AP: 50,000
      • 2 June 2002 LA Times: >50,000 acc2 Red Cross
  • Atrocities:
    • Zucchino, “The Americans ... They Just Drop Their Bombs and Leave”, 2 June 2002 LA Times: 20,000 civilians k. by Soviet air raids, March 1979 in Herat
    • Sussman, “CIA Almost Sure of Afghan Massacre, Senator Says”, 4 March 1980 AP: 1,300 villagers in Konarha Province k. by Soviets & Afghan govt. "last year"
    • By Soviets in Kunduz (province in northern Afg.)
      • “Soviet Military In Unconfirmed Report Linked To Massacre Of 900 Civilians”, 27 March 1985 AP: 900 massacred
      • “Hundreds of Civilians Reportedly Killed by Soviets in Afghanistan”, 26 Feb. 1985 AP: 480 civilians massacred at Chahardara (town) ca. Feb. 2/3
    • Taliban POWs k. by Northern Alliance in Mazar-i-Sharif, May 1997
      • 28 Nov.1998 NY Times: up to 2,000
      • 26 Aug. 2002 Newsweek: 1,250
    • By Taliban in Mazar-e Sharif, Nov. 1998
      • 13 Nov. 1998 News-India Times: 5,000-8,000 massacred
      • 28 Nov.1998 Washington Post: 2,000-5,000 ethnic Hazara civilians k.
    • Harff & Gurr: 1,000,000 old regime loyalists, rebel supporters were victims of revolutionary politicide.
  • Soviet deaths:
    • FAS 2000: ca. 14,500
    • 20 May 88 Chicago Tribune: 12-15,000 killed
    • Isby, War in a Distant Country: 13,310 KIA as of 25 May 1988
    • 24 Dec. 1989 Arizona Republic: 13,310
    • War Annual 6 (1994): 13,833
    • Wallechinsky: 14,454, incl. 11,381 in combat
Sudan (1983-2005): 1,900,000 [make link]
  • [Listed Chronologically]
  • War Annual 4 (1990): 500,000 dead, 1983-89
  • Dunnigan (1991): 500,000
  • Washington Post: 500,000 (12 Feb. 1993)
  • Detroit Free Press (AP): 1,300,000 "in the fighting and resulting famines" (14 Jan. 1997) [http://www.freep.com/news/nw/qsudan14.htm]
  • B&J (1997): 1,500,000 (1983-95)
  • SIPRI 1997: 37,000 to 40,000 battle dead
  • CDI: 1,000,000 (1983-97)
  • BBC News Online: 1,500,000 "in fighting and related famines" (4 June 1998) [http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/world/africa/newsid_106000/106635.stm]
  • Time: 1,500,000 killed, 1983-98 (27 July 1998)
  • U.S. Committee for Refugees: 1,900,000 (Quantifying Genocide in Southern Sudan and the Nuba Mountains, 10 Dec. 1998) [http://www.refugees.org/news/crisis/sudan.pdf] This report updates a 1993 study, which had estimated that 1.3M had died thus far.
  • Dict.Wars (1999): 1.5M (1956-98)
  • 29 April 1999 AP: 1.5M
  • Ploughshares 2000: 2M
  • 23 May 1999 Denver Rocky Mtn News: 2M
  • 10 Nov. 2003 Baltimore Sun: 1.5M
  • NY Times 27 June 2004: >2M
  • [MEDIAN of last 7 estimates: 1.9M]
Kinshasa Congo (1998 et seq.): 3,800,000 [make link]
  • International Rescue Committee mortality studies [http://www.theirc.org/special-reports/congo-forgotten-crisis]
    • NY Times, Chicago Tribune (9 June 2000): 1,700,000 excess deaths in eastern Congo due to civil war, incl. 200,000 killed by violence.
    • Newer IRC study (8 May 2001): 2,500,000 excess deaths in eastern Congo due to civil war, incl. 350,000 killed by violence. The next study, dated 8 April 2003, estimated 3.3m d.
    • 2005 IRC study: 3,800,000 excess deaths in D.R. Congo from the start of the Second Congo War through April 30, 2005.
    • Newest IRC study (2008): 5,400,000 excess deaths.
    • ANALYSIS: The 2008 study found that the mortality rate in Congo still exceeds the African average, causing over a million and a half excess deaths since the formal end of hostilities; however, deaths by violence fell sharply from 11.1% at the peak of the fighting, to 1.5% after December 2006, and the IRC has moved away from calling it a war to calling it a humanitarian crisis, so I'm blaming the actual war only for the 3.8 million excess deaths that actually occurred during it, as determined by the 2005 study.
  • Human Security Report Project: 3 million
    • They suggest the IRC estimate was based on a faulty baseline set for the peacetime death rate. "DR Congo war deaths 'exaggerated'", BBC, 20 January 2010 [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8471147.stm]

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